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Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster predicts that the new MacBook Air will take a mere 16% of the Mac market share by the end of 2008. After conducting a survey with Apple resellers, the outcome was that interest in the product is very high, due to the thing factor, but sales will be modest. After Gene Munster talked to 20 Apple specialists he gave his thoughts to the press:

According to the resellers we spoke to, the MacBook Air has a smaller but separate target market than the MacBook. Most described the market as a group that prioritizes mobility and is less price sensitive than the MacBook market. One reseller referred to MacBook Air as the first “Executive Mac.” ~ Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray

The Christmas season quarter went well for Mac sales but he expects overall Mac sales to fall in the coming months. 35 percent of the surveyed expect Mac sales to go up, 45 percent expect them to go down and 20% expect them to be flat for the March quarter.

With the heavy price for little weight and performance, I agree with these Apple resellers who have day-to-day sales and a better grasp on product interest from selling Apple computers in a retail environment, that the MacBook Air won’t be strong in the Mac market.

Via [Apple 2.0y]