Is Apple immune to the economic downturn?

This past Wednesday, Apple announced its financial results for its fiscal 2009 first quarter ended December 27, 2008, in which they reported the best quarterly revenue and earnings in Apple History. The company sold 2,524,000 Mac computers, a record 22,727,000 iPods, and 4,363,000 iPhones. This amounted to the record revenue of $10.17 billion and record net quarterly profit of $1.61 billion, or $1.78 per diluted share, all of which seems to counter news of Microsoft and Intel announcing layoffs amid a drop in profits, but does that really mean Apple is “recession proof?”
“Even in these economically challenging times, we are incredibly pleased to report our best quarterly revenue and earnings in Apple historysurpassing $10 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time ever,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO.
And where Steve was looking back, Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer was looking ahead: “Our outstanding results generated over $3.6 billion in cash during the quarter. Looking ahead to the second fiscal quarter of 2009, we expect revenue in the range of about $7.6 billion to $8 billion, and we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of about $.90 to $1.00.”
How can Apple remain so optimistic in these turbulent times? I’m certainly no expert on corporate business or modern economics, but I can say with confidence, “Beats me.”
Analysts have suggested how consumers won’t be willing to pay the premium for Apple products during a recession (talk of the need for an Apple Netbook often follows), but I wonder if, instead, Apple’s target audience is less affected by the recession. I don’t mean for that to sound to arrogant, of course. I’m Apple’s target audience, and believe me, I’m affected. I can’t imagine there are many people out there who aren’t, yet people seem to still be buying Apple products.
Perhaps it’s a psychological thing. Does walking around with an expensive iPhone and an overpriced data plan indicate to people that we’re doing better than we actually are? Are we willing to take a hit elsewhere in order to carry around a MacBook Air? Maybe the persistent joy of carrying around our music, videos and photos on an iPod helps recover some of the joy lost by eating out less, seeing fewer movies, or spending less time out with friends.
Again, I have no expert opinion on this, but the opinions of most experts seem off, too. Not that that would matter, anyway. Apple’s stock performance is more tied to the market right now than to their actual performance, so news such as this, whereas helpful in the short term, isn’t nearly enough to calm the overall market fears of investors.

Apple stock performance on January 21st, 2009, the day of their earnings conference call.
And this is why Apple is not immune to the economic downturn. We’re still not sure how far the market will sink, and who it’s able to take down with it. There’s also no guarantee that Apple won’t need to follow Microsoft, Intel and Google in laying off employees in order to remain profitable. Something to consider, too, is that this isn’t an “us vs. them” situation. The bad financial news from our “enemies” directly affects Apple. Worse, it directly affects peoples’ lives. Microsoft employees or not, we never want to see people lose their source of income, especially now. I certainly hope that those being laid off are able to get back into the workforce quickly.
In perfect times, competition between and Apple, Microsoft and others would be driven by profitability across the board, where more money can be spent on research and development, on new products that push technology forward instead of on familiar products that are more likely to make fast money.
But these are just my opinions, which admittedly come directly from observation and instincts as opposed to education and experience. What are your thoughts? Give a listen to Apple’s Q1 - 2009 financial results conference call (available until approximately February 4th), and join in on this discussion.
Via [Apple - Press Info]
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There are many reasons for what currently appears to be Apple’s ‘immunity’ to the economic downturn. One is clearly the continued draw to its superior technology. Another is even simpler:
When your market share is small, any small incremental increase in total market share represents a significant jump from historic and present levels. When you’re the party hold about 90% o the market, there is realistically nowhere to go but down.
With reasonable margins—far, far smaller than those of Microsoft, for example, continued innovation, growing market share and tons of cash ‘in the bank,’ it’s quite likely that Apple will grow and thrive even as others stumble in the high technology sector during this cycle of retraction and recovery.
on January 23, 2009 at 02:46 PM - LINKAnother is that people may be starting to realize that cost is a far bigger picture than acquisition costs alone. The support and feeding of a Windows machine is expensive, typically running 5-6 times more time and effort than an OS X machine (from data on over 500,000 machines). Just defending against virus and spyware attacks alone is a big resource ($$$ & time) consumer ( Windows > 1,000,000 virus; OS X = 0 ). Some say market share makes this number; my experience indicates it is fundamental operating system architecture issues that plague Windows.
Apple products are less expensive to buy, compared to the corporate quality machines from Sony, Dell, HP, Lenovo, etc. Yes, you can buy a less expensive (and cheaply built) Windows machine, but the quality products from any vendor are all priced comparably, and an Apple box can run Windows as well, albeit with the same problems as any other Windows machine.
When money gets tight, some people start a more objective look at what is costs, beyond pure purchase price. What you save in boot and shutdown time, OS stability, security, and rich applications with consistent, low-cost-of-training interfaces, provided by OS X offsets any perceived cost difference. ... unless your time is not worth anything.
on January 23, 2009 at 03:47 PM - LINKDo not underestimate Apple. Also, I think some would look for any reason to bring their stock price down because they know it will be back up.
on January 23, 2009 at 08:22 PM - LINK